PRESS PICKS (Week 12): Playoff committee falling into same pattern of emotions when ranking teams
STAFF REPORT
For the second-straight year (the many years in existence) the12-team College Football Playoff is already a crap shoot.
Despite changes that seem to lean towards giving “more deserving” teams a better chance of making the field, the old habits are getting in the way.
At least, it looks like that so far, based on rankings.
Last week, there were questions about Notre Dame and why they seem to be getting a pass as to the two losses when teams behind them seem to have a better resume. We all know why that is the case but if you have any questions, call up last week’s picks (here).
This week, it’s beginning to look like teams are being touted as elite when they haven’t really played a difficult schedule, something the committee said before the season would be emphasized more when making selections.
It might depend on which system is used to determine the toughest schedules (and there are dozens of computer-based methods), but the commonality of all is that the Southeastern Conference is once again the most difficult to navigate.
But the Win-Loss record already is taking precedence. And fairness to “all” conferences is also rearing its ugly head.
Take Texas Tech, for example. No one doubts the Red Raiders are an excellent team but they were moved ahead of Ole Miss after beating BYU. The Rebels played their annual cup cake and were apparently penalized for it. But looking at the overall records, there was no reason other than a knee-jerk one, to move either team.
There is ulterior motives at work here. In the next few weeks, and if all of the top five spots hold, there will still be some of the teams lose, if only because they might meet in the conference championship games. Texas Tech will be in position (assuming it doesn’t lose again), to swoop in and take one of those two four spots despite doing it in an inferior conference.
If Alabama stays on course and wins out but loses to Texas A&M in the championship game in Atlanta, more than likely, the Tide would drop out of the top four, leaving the Red Raiders ready to plop in.
Now look at the schedule strength… Alabama stands at sixth, highest among the 12 teams that, at the moment, would make the 12-team field. Texas Tech - 46th. That is one of the lowest in the field.
In Warren Nolan’s ELO schedule rankings, Alabama is ninth, Texas Tech, 70th. (click to observe)
That makes the claim of utilizing schedule strength a lie. There are other examples and the same would hold true for A&M, Ohio State, even Indiana, if any of those lose in the next few weeks.
You can use the “eye test” module if needed but it still doesn’t prove the Raiders as one of the top five teams. Vegas says if they were paired with any of the top five, they would be underdogs against all but Indiana (who is also a imposter, but we already know about that).
Bottom line - don’t expect any changes in how the 12 are decided on or where they are put in the pecking order come Dec. 7. They will continue to use emotions instead of numbers on the tough calls, making it look “fair” to the masses, even though they won’t see it that way.
2025 Standings (Last week)
1. Michael Butler 135-45 (12-3).750
2. Graham Dunn 133-47 (12-3) .739
3. Tim Gayle 126-54 (12-3) .700
4. Wesley Lyle 125-55 (12-3) .694
Doug Amos 125-55 (14-1) .694
6. Mike Peacock 124-56 (12-3) .688
. Barry McKnight 124-56 (11-4) .688
Rick Hendrick 121-59 (10-5) .672
9. Rosie Langello 117-63 (12-3) .650
Lindsey Bonner 117-63 (13-2) .650
Michael Butler (WTLS 101.1&94.7 FM/1300 AM/Tallassee Times)
135-45 (12-3).750
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Duke
Graham Dunn (River Region Sports/WTLS/Voice of Alabama State Hornets)
133-47 (12-3) .739
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Trinity
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Virginia
Tim Gayle (River Region Sports/Montgomery Independent)
126-54 (12-3) .700
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Trinity
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Duke
Wesley Lyle (River Region Sports)
125-55 (12-3) .694
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Trinity
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Texas
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Virginia
Doug Amos (ESPN The Ticket)
125-55 (14-1) .694
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Duke
Mike Peacock (River Region Sports/ASU Hornets Radio analyst )
124-56 (12-3) .688
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Miss St
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - NC State
Virginia at Duke - Virginia
Barry McKnight (Voice of Troy Trojans)
124-56 (11-4) .688
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Texas
Arkansas at LSU - Arkansas
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Virginia
Rick Hendrick (WXFS 95.1 The Fox/PA Montgomery Biscuits)
121-59 (10-5) .672
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Elmore Co
Trinity at Glenwood - Trinity
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Miss St
Iowa at USC - USC
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Duke
Rosie Langello (Sports Director - WSFA Ch. 12)
117-63 (12-3) .650
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Williamson
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - Arkansas
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Miss St
Iowa at USC - Iowa
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Virginia
Lindsey Bonner (Sports Director - WAKA Ch. 8)
117-63 (13-2) .650
Bessemer City at Pike Road - Pike Road
Catholic at Shelby Co - Catholic
Williamson at Elmore Co - Elmore Co
Trinity at Glenwood - Glenwood
Lee-Scott at Montgomery Aca - Montgomery Aca
Oklahoma at Alabama - Alabama
Texas at Georgia - Georgia
Arkansas at LSU - LSU
South Carolina at Texas A&M - Texas A&M
Florida at Ole Miss - Ole Miss
Miss St at Missouri - Missouri
Iowa at USC - Iowa
Notre Dame at Pitt - Notre Dame
NC State at Miami - Miami
Virginia at Duke - Virginia